How Do You Calculate Poker Odds

This is a very important lesson and can also be quite intimidating to a lot of people as we are going to discuss Poker Math!

• How Do You Calculate Poker Odds For Today
• How Do You Calculate Pot Odds In Poker

If you ever wondered about your chances of winning a bet with odds 3 to 5, our odds calculator is here to help you. Having given the betting odds, you will now be able to calculate the percentage probability of winning or losing and decide whether the reward is worth the risk. Calculate whether you're getting the right pot odds to call to try and hit one of your poker outs – and don't forget to factor in the fact that if there are multiple players to act after you, there's a chance you may get raised and subsequently forced out of the hand.

But there is no need for you to be intimidated, Poker Maths is very simple and we will show you a very simple method in this lesson.

You won't need to carry a calculator around with you or perform any complex mathematical calculations.

What is Poker Math?

As daunting as it sounds, it is simply a tool that we use during the decision making process to calculate the Pot Odds in Poker and the chances of us winning the pot.

Remember, Poker is not based on pure luck, it is a game of probabilities, there are a certain number of cards in the deck and a certain probability that outcomes will occur. So we can use this in our decision making process.

Every time we make a decision in Poker it is a mathematical gamble, what we have to make sure is that we only take the gamble when the odds are on in our favour. As long as we do this, in the long term we will always come out on top.

When to Use Poker Maths

Poker Maths is mainly used when we need to hit a card in order to make our hand into a winning hand, and we have to decide whether it is worth carrying on and chasing that card.

To make this decision we consider two elements:

1. How many 'Outs' we have (Cards that will make us a winning hand) and how likely it is that an Out will be dealt.
2. What are our 'Pot Odds' – How much money will we win in return for us taking the gamble that our Out will be dealt

We then compare the likelihood of us hitting one of our Outs against the Pot Odds we are getting for our bet and see if mathematically it is a good bet.

The best way to understand and explain this is by using a hand walk through, looking at each element individually first, then we'll bring it all together in order to make a decision on whether we should call the bet.

Consider the following situation where you hold A 8 in the big blind. Before the flop everyone folds round to the small blind who calls the extra 5c, to make the Total pot before the Flop 20c (2 players x 10c). The flop comes down K 9 4 and your opponent bets 10c. Let's use Poker Math to make the decision on whether to call or not.

Poker Outs

When we are counting the number of 'Outs' we have, we are looking at how many cards still remain in the deck that could come on the turn or river which we think will make our hand into the winning hand.

In our example hand you have a flush draw needing only one more Club to make the Nut Flush (highest possible). You also hold an overcard, meaning that if you pair your Ace then you would beat anyone who has already hit a single pair on the flop.

From the looks of that flop we can confidently assume that if you complete your Flush or Pair your Ace then you will hold the leading hand. So how many cards are left in the deck that can turn our hand into the leading hand?

• Flush – There are a total of 13 clubs in the deck, of which we can see 4 clubs already (2 in our hand and 2 on the flop) that means there are a further 9 club cards that we cannot see, so we have 9 Outs here.
• Ace Pair – There are 4 Ace's in the deck of which we are holding one in our hand, so that leaves a further 3 Aces that we haven't seen yet, so this creates a further 3 Outs.

So we have 9 outs that will give us a flush and a further 3 outs that will give us Top Pair, so we have a total of 12 outs that we think will give us the winning hand.

So what is the likelihood of one of those 12 outs coming on the Turn or River?

Professor's Rule of 4 and 2

An easy and quick way to calculate this is by using the Professor's rule of 4 and 2. This way we can forget about complex calculations and quickly calculate the probability of hitting one of our outs.

The Professor's Rule of 4 and 2

• After the Flop (2 cards still to come… Turn + River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs = Number of Outs x 4
• After the Turn (1 card to come.. River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs – Number of Outs x 2

So after the flop we have 12 outs which using the Rule of 4 and 2 we can calculate very quickly that the probability of hitting one of our outs is 12 x 4 = 48%. The exact % actually works out to 46.7%, but the rule of 4 and 2 gives us a close enough answer for the purposes we need it for.

If we don't hit one of our Outs on the Turn then with only the River left to come the probability that we will hit one of our 12 Outs drops to 12 x 2 = 24% (again the exact % works out at 27.3%)

To compare this to the exact percentages lets take a look at our poker outs chart:

As you can see the Rule of 4 and 2 does not give us the exact %, but it is pretty close and a nice quick and easy way to do the math in your head.

Now lets summarise what we have calculated so far:

• We estimate that to win the hand you have 12 Outs
• We have calculated that after the flop with 2 cards still to come there is approximately a 48% chance you will hit one of your outs.

Now we know the Odds of us winning, we need to look at the return we will get for our gamble, or in other words the Pot Odds.

Pot Odds

When we calculate the Pot Odds we are simply looking to see how much money we will win in return for our bet. Again it's a very simple calculation…

Pot Odds Formula

Pot Odds = Total Pot divided by the Bet I would have to call

What are the pot odds after the flop with our opponent having bet 10c?

• Total Pot = 20c + 10c bet = 30 cents
• Total Bet I would have to make = 10 cents
• Therefore the pot odds are 30 cents divided by 10 cents or 3 to 1.

What does this mean? It means that in order to break even we would need to win once for every 3 times we lose. The amount we would win would be the Total Pot + the bet we make = 30 cents + 10 cents = 40 cents.

Break Even Percentage

Now that we have worked out the Pot Odds we need to convert this into a Break Even Percentage so that we can use it to make our decision. Again it's another simple calculation that you can do in your head.

Break Even Percentage

Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by (Pot odds added together)

Let me explain a bit further. Pot Odds added together means replace the 'to' with a plus sign eg: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4. So in the example above our pot odds are 3 to 1 so our Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Note – This only works if you express your pot odds against a factor of 1 eg: '3 to 1' or '5 to 1' etc. It will not work if you express the pot odds as any other factor eg: 3 to 2 etc.

So… Should You call?

So lets bring the two elements together in our example hand and see how we can use the new poker math techniques you have learned to arrive at a decision of whether to continue in the hand or whether to fold.

To do this we compare the percentage probability that we are going to hit one of our Outs and win the hand, with the Break Even Percentage.

Should I Call?

• Call if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is greater than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage
• Fold if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is less than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage

Our calculations above were as follows:

• Probability of Hitting an Out = 48%
• Break Even Percentage = 25%

If our Probability of hitting an out is higher than the Break Even percentage then this represents a good bet – the odds are in our favour. Why? Because what we are saying above is that we are going to get the winning hand 48% of the time, yet in order to break even we only need to hit the winning hand 25% of the time, so over the long run making this bet will be profitable because we will win the hand more times that we need to in order to just break even.

Hand Walk Through #2

Lets look at another hand example to see poker mathematics in action again.

Before the Flop:

• Blinds: 5 cents / 10 cents
• Your Position: Big Blind
• Your Hand: K 10
• Before Flop Action: Everyone folds to the dealer who calls and the small blind calls, you check.

Two people have called and per the Starting hand chart you should just check here, so the Total Pot before the flop = 30 cents.

Flop comes down Q J 6 and the Dealer bets 10c, the small blind folds.

Do we call? Lets go through the thought process:

How has the Flop helped my hand?
It hasn't but we do have some draws as we have an open ended straight draw (any Ace or 9 will give us a straight) We also have an overcard with the King.

How has the Flop helped my opponent?
The Dealer did not raise before the flop so it is unlikely he is holding a really strong hand. He may have limped in with high cards or suited connectors. At this stage our best guess is to assume that he has hit top pair and holds a pair of Queens. It's possible that he hit 2 pair with Q J or he holds a small pair like 6's and now has a set, but we come to the conclusion that this is unlikely.

How many Outs do we have?
So we conclude that we are facing top pair, in which case we need to hit our straight or a King to make top pair to hold the winning hand.

• Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
• King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)
• Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

What are the Pot Odds?
Total Pot is now 40 cents and we are asked to call 10 cents so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

Decision
So now we have quickly run the numbers it is clear that this is a good bet for us (44% vs 20%), and we make the call – Total Pot now equals 50 cents.

Turn Card

Turn Card = 3 and our opponent makes a bet of 25 cents.

After the Turn Card
This card has not helped us and it is unlikely that it has helped our opponent, so at this point we still estimate that our opponent is still in the lead with top pair.

Outs
We still need to hit one of our 11 Outs and now with only the River card to come our Probability of Winning has reduced and is now = 11 x 2 = 22%

Pot Odds
The Total Pot is now 75 cents and our Pot odds are 75 divided by 25 = 3 to 1. This makes our Break Even percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Decision
So now we have the situation where our probability of winning is less than the break even percentage and so at this point we would fold, even though it is a close call.

Summary

Well that was a very heavy lesson, but I hope you can see how Poker Maths doesn't have to be intimidating, and really they are just some simple calculations that you can do in your head. The numbers never lie, and you can use them to make decisions very easy in Poker.

You've learnt some important new skills and it's time to practise them and get back to the tables with the next stage of the Poker Bankroll Challenge.

Poker Bankroll Challenge: Stage 3

• Stakes: $0.02/$0.04
• Buy In: $3 (75 x BB)
• Starting Bankroll: $34
• Target: $9 (3 x Buy In)
• Finishing Bankroll: $43
• Estimated Sessions: 3

Use this exercise to start to consider your Outs and Pot Odds in your decision making process, and add this tool to the other tools you have already put into practice such as the starting hands chart.

Table Of Contents

If you are looking for an article to finally understand the concept of poker equity, this is the right one for you.

In this beginner's guide to poker equity, we cover:

• what is equity in poker and why it matters
• how to calculate the equity in poker
• and a lot more.

There's also a list of the best poker equity calculators, so you can sit back and let someone else do the math for you.

How Do You Calculate Poker Odds For Today

Continue reading to understand why you need to master the concept of equity in poker and how you can use the best poker equity calculators to your advantage when you play online.

What is Equity in Poker?

The concept of 'poker equity' is one beginners don't like and often struggle to understand.

Not many love to think they should base their decisions on numbers or rely on a math-based approach when they play cards. After all, that's not what they expected when they first entered the world of poker.

If you are one of them, I have bad news for you:

Unless you understand what equity is in poker (and how to use it to your advantage), your results will hardly get your name featured on our articles here on PokerNews.

When you play poker, 'Equity' refers to your 'rightful' share of a pot as determined by your current chance of winning the hand.

If you are heads-up with $180 in the pot and your chance of winning the hand is 50%, your 'equity' in the hand at that moment is $90.

Be careful, though. The figure:

• does not refer to what you expect to win on that particular hand;
• it relates to the amount you would expect to win on average over multiple instances of the same situation.

If you think about this, you might understand why many players prefer to refer to poker equity as a synonym of 'value.'

Register a free account at 888poker to access outstanding poker strategy articles!

How to Calculate Equity in Poker

With so many poker equity calculators out there, you might ask: 'why should I learn how to calculate the equity in poker?'

A quick tap on your mobile phone or tools like this poker odds calculator can do the math for you. In seconds.

They tell you the value, the odds, and the optimal play based on your cards.

That's awesome, right?

What they don't do, however, is tell you how to calculate poker equity. Nor they tell you how to combine all the information available to find out your chances of winning the hand.

If you want to become a good poker player, you need to go the extra mile. You need to understand what happens around you and how to calculate value when you don't have any third-party help available to do the (dirty) work for you.

The following example shows you a real-life poker situation and introduces you to a simple way to calculate the equity in poker.

A Real-Life Example

In a no-limit hold'em cash game, you reach the flop in a heads-up pot. The board shows .

Betting on the flop between you and a single opponent results in you being all in with the pot totalling $200.

• You turn over for a straight flush draw.
• Your your opponent has

Sadly for you, your opponent has the best hand at the moment, with a pair of aces beating your almost straight.

But not all is lost. As math shows, you have an excellent chance to be the one taking down the pot.

Even though your opponent is currently ahead in the hand, he is only a little under 44% to win the hand thanks to all of your possible outs.

You, on the other hand, are just over 56% to win.

How Did We Calculate Poker Equity?

Your equity is calculated by applying the percentage chance of winning to the amount in the pot — here 56% of $200, or $112 of equity.

Meanwhile, your opponent's equity is $88.

(Of course only one of you will win the entire $200, depending on what the turn and river bring.)

How to Use Poker Equity When You Play

In the example, we calculate poker equity exactly after the cards were tabled, but when involved in a hand you must estimate your equity in a given pot based on your read of how your hand rates versus the hand strength of your opponent(s).

Say in that example your opponent was usually very tight and had three-bet you before the flop, then led with a bet on that flop.

Given how the player has been playing, you believe it's very likely he holds a strong hand like pocket aces or pocket kings.

Knowing that you have such a strong draw and have more equity here than those hands (or indeed, than most hands), you can call or raise his flop bet.

That said, your equity can change as a hand proceeds.

Say you reach the turn in this same hand with the board showing .

With just one card to come to complete your draws, your equity versus pocket aces or pocket kings has dropped to only under 30% of the pot, which might make it difficult to continue if your opponent bets and the resulting pot odds aren't favourable.

Sometimes you'll hear players say that when short-stacked in a tournament they'd instead go all-in with a hand like than with , because if they are called they are likely to have more 'equity' (i.e., a better chance of winning the hand).

If called by a player holding , is almost 41% to win while is less than 27%. And if called by , is actually a little over 50% to win while is only about 30%.

Consistently correct decisions based on equity considerations over the long term significantly increase the likelihood of being a winning player.

Read Also: How to Play Poker. A complete collection of poker rules (and strategy tips). Use it to discover new poker games or master the ones you already know.

Poker Equity Calculators

Now that you know what is poker equity and how you can calculate it yourself, it's time to look at the best calculators available in 2020.

You should use a poker equity calculator:

• As you play: to understand your chances to win a pot
• When you review your game: to evaluate the decisions you made and learn from your mistakes
• When you examine other players' hands: to reverse-engineer their thinking process and get inside their head

In the list that follows, you find the best poker equity calculators to use in 2020 — both free and paid. Have a look at them, find the one that matches your need, and use it to bring your game to a different level.

PokerNews poker equity calculator (Free)

If you are looking for a free poker equity calculator, launch the PokerNews one and use it to recreate any scenarios you lived at the table.

The current calculator is in Flash is due to be replaced by an enhanced and all-new version in the first half of 2020.

Once that happens, you'll have on that page the best poker equity calculator in the industry. Use it to calculate your odds, value, and a lot more. No subscription needed.

Poker equity calculator Holdem Lab 2 (Free)

This handy Android app is one of the most popular Equity calculators on the Google Play Store.

The app claims to be 'the most complex' equity calculator for Android, and despite a few tiny flaws, it is indeed one that will help you improve your game.

Download the Poker equity calculator Hold'em Lab 2 Android to access features like:

• free poker equity calculator
• accurate odds calculation
• range filtering
• hands history
• and many more.

This Equity calculator app has lots of positive reviews on Google Play, and it is available for free download.

Preflop + Poker GTO Nash Charts (Free / $74.99)

Although one should always doubt the apps that claim to be 'THE best app to improve as a poker player,' Preflop + is a great one to download on iPhone, iPad, and Android.

This poker app was developed by high-stakes pro Matt Berkey and is backed by 2019 WSOP Circuit Ring winner Lara Eisenberg.

Preflop + is more than just a poker Equity calculator as it gives you also different training modules improve various aspects of your game.

Once you access the different areas of Preflop +, you get to calculate your poker equity or train for particular spots and situations.

While this is one of the best apps of its kind, it is also one you need to pay for.

Using all the features of Preflop+ and therefore gaining access to the entire training program requires a subscription.

At the time of writing, the plans available are:

• Monthly: $3.99/month
• Yearly: $31.99/year
• Unlimited: $74.99 - unlimited access, forever

If spending $75 only poker app is not a problem for you, we recommend you try this one and make it an essential part of your poker training.

Flopzilla ($25)

Flopzilla has been around for more than ten years and is one of the few poker tools that almost every player have used at least once in their life.

While the graphics look more basic than those of the most modern poker equity calculator apps, Flopzilla is a sound alternative — provided you are looking for a desktop-based option.

Besides the super-fast access to useful stats, one of the aspects of Flopzilla that we love most is the involvement of the developers in the poker community.

The Flopzilla official thread on the 2+2 Poker Forum is always very active. It is the perfect place to discuss results, ask questions, and develop new customisations of the tool.

One Flopzilla license costs $25 and gives you the right to install the software on two computers.

Flopzilla's official website states that this poker equity calculator can be installed only on computers owned by the same person.

Different individuals cannot share the same license.

You can purchase the $25 license via PayPal, Skrill, credit card, bankwire, iDeal, and a few other payment solutions.

Poker Cruncher (Free / Paid)

If you want to take your game the next level and you are ready to invest in a tool that will help you achieve your goal, have a look at Poker Cruncher.

Available on iPhone, iPad, Android, and Mac (via a dedicated app on the Mac App Store), Poker Cruncher is one of the few must-have applications that most beginners should consider purchasing.

Extremely useful for a correct poker odds calculation and hand analysis, Poker Crunches offers different paid plans — all unlimited.

At present, the plans are:

• Advanced iPhone: $12.99
• Advanced iPad: $17.99
• Advanced Android: $12.99
• Expert Mac: $44.99
• Basic iPhone: $3.99
• Basic Mac: $7.99
• Free iPhone:free

Please note that all apps are sold separately. E.g. if you buy the iPhone version of this poker equity calculator, your purchase does not include access to the iPad or Mac apps, and vice-versa.

Poker Equity F.A.Q.

When you play poker, the concept of 'equity' (also: 'value') refers to the part of a pot that is 'yours' as determined by your chances to win the hand ('odds') at a precise moment in time.

The simplest way to calculate the equity (or value) in poker is by applying your % chance to win the pot to the amount in the pot in a specific moment. For a more detailed explanation, look at this example.

Yes. You can use a free poker equity calculator for a quick analysis of a hand, or you can try a paid one to get more insights on your play. This list of poker equity calculators gives you all the top free and paid options in 2020.

About this article

This guide to poker equity includes a collection of tips that appeared on different PokeNews articles between 2003 and 2020.

How Do You Calculate Pot Odds In Poker

A great thanks go to Neil Gibson for his Talking Poker: Equity (2015), for the example in this article, and for giving us a way to create this basic guide to equity in poker.

• Tags

  poker termsequity